So, you’re planning a BBQ. You’ve decided on the king of all smoked meats: the brisket. That’s a great call. People are going to be excited.
But then the panic sets in a little bit. You have to go to the store and buy this giant, intimidating piece of meat. And you have no idea what size to get.
How much brisket is enough? How much is too much? This is the question that keeps backyard pitmasters up at night.
It’s a real puzzle because the weight on the butcher paper is not the weight you’ll have on the cutting board. Not even close.
Let’s get this sorted out for you.
The Big Question: How Much Brisket Per Person?
Let’s just get straight to the numbers. The general rule of thumb that is considered to be correct is about a half-pound (1/2 lb) of cooked brisket per person.
That seems simple enough, right? Wrong.
The key word there is cooked.
A raw brisket loses a huge amount of weight during the smoking process. It is this shrinkage that really throws everyone’s calculations off.
So, for planning purposes, you need to think in terms of raw weight. A much safer bet is to plan for one pound (1 lb) of raw brisket per person.
This usually accounts for the shrinkage and gives everyone a really good-sized portion. It feels like a lot, but trust the process.
Raw Brisket vs. Cooked Brisket – The Great Shrinkage Mystery
Why does brisket shrink so much? It’s basically a magic trick where your 15-pound brisket turns into an 8-pound one.
It all comes down to two main things: trimming the fat and the cooking process itself. This whole thing is what people in the know call “yield”.
We’re just going to call it the brisket meltdown. It’s a natural thing that has to happen for the meat to get tender and delicious.
Trimming the Fat Cap
Before you even season your brisket, you normally have to trim it. A whole packer brisket comes with a huge, thick layer of hard fat on top.
Some of that fat is good. It protects the meat and adds flavor.
But a lot of it is just too thick and it won’t render down properly. You have to carve a good bit of it off.
Depending on the brisket, you could easily trim off one two or even three pounds of pure fat and silver skin. That’s weight you paid for that will never be served.
The Cooking Process Meltdown
Once the trimmed brisket is in the smoker, the real weight loss begins. Over that long, slow cook, two things are happening.
First, the intramuscular fat, the marbling that makes brisket so good, is slowly melting. This is what bastes the meat from the inside, but it’s also liquid weight that is leaving.
Second, water is evaporating from the meat. It’s a long cook, and a lot of moisture just steams away.
Between the fat rendering and the water evaporating, a brisket can lose anywhere from 40% to 60% of its original weight. That’s a massive drop.
Factors that affect shrinkage include:
The grade of the meat (higher grade like Prime has more fat).
How much you trimmed off before cooking.
The temperature you’re cooking at.
Whether you wrap the brisket or not during the cook.
Fine-Tuning Your Brisket Math for Different Events
Okay. So you got the shrinkage part down. But what about your actual party? The one-pound-per-person rule is a great starting point, but you can adjust it.
The context of your meal really matters. The type of crowd and the amount of other food available changes everything.
The Backyard BBQ Crowd
This is your classic Saturday cookout. You’ve probably got potato salad, coleslaw, baked beans, and a bunch of other sides.
When there are a ton of other food options, people generally won’t eat a massive amount of brisket. Their plates are already full.
For this kind of gathering, you can probably get away with a little less. Aiming for about 3/4 of a pound of raw brisket per person is normally a safe calculation.
The “Brisket is the Star” Showdown
Now, think about a different kind of event. Maybe it’s a smaller get-together where the whole point is to feature your amazing brisket.
There are only a couple of simple sides, like pickles and onions. Here, the brisket is the main attraction.
Serving it as the main course with not many other options, your brisket needs will be higher. People are there for the meat.
In this case, stick firmly to that one pound of raw brisket per person rule. You might even bump it up to 1.25 pounds per person if you have big eaters.
What About the Kids and Light Eaters?
You also have to think about who is coming. Are there going to be a lot of kids?
Kids typically eat way less than adults. You can normally count two kids as one adult in your meat math.
Same goes for any guests you know are just not big meat eaters. You dont have to be super scientific about it just eyeball it and adjust your total down a bit. Or just keep it high and plan for leftovers.
Don’t Forget the Leftovers Game Plan
Let’s be honest, one of the best parts about cooking a huge brisket is having leftovers. Leftover brisket is beefy gold.
It can be used for so many things. Brisket tacos, brisket chili, brisket sandwiches, brisket quesadillas the list goes on.
So, when you’re doing your brisket calculations, it’s a good idea to plan for leftovers on purpose. Don’t think of it as a miscalculation; think of it as a gift to your future self.
A simple way to do this is to just add an extra 2 to 3 pounds of raw weight to your final number.
If your math says you need a 12-pound brisket for your party, maybe just go ahead and grab a 14 or 15-pounder. You will not regret it when you’re eating amazing brisket tacos on Tuesday.
Frequently Asked Questions About Brisket Serving Size
What’s a good starting size brisket to buy for a party?
A whole packer brisket, which includes both the point and the flat muscle, is typically the best option. These normally weigh between 12 and 18 pounds. A 14-pound brisket is a great, common size that will feed a decent number of people.
How many people will a 10 lb brisket feed?
Using our rule, a 10-pound raw brisket will lose about 40-50% of its weight. So you’ll end up with about 5-6 pounds of cooked meat. At a half-pound per person, a 10-pound raw brisket will comfortably feed 10 to 12 people.
Should I buy a brisket flat or a point?
The flat is leaner and gives you those nice, clean slices. The point is fattier and more marbled, often used for burnt ends. For serving a crowd, a whole packer is best. If you can only get a flat, know that it’s leaner and might have a slightly lower yield.
Is it better to have too much brisket or too little?
Too much. Always, always have too much. Running out of brisket at a BBQ is a tragedy. Having leftovers is a victory. It freezes really well, so there’s no downside to having extra.
How do I freeze leftover brisket?
The best way is to let it cool completely, then slice it. Use a vacuum sealer to pack the slices in serving-sized portions. If you don’t have a vacuum sealer, wrap it tightly in plastic wrap, then in foil, and put it in a freezer bag.
Key Takeaways
The Golden Rule: Plan for 1/2 pound of cooked brisket per person.
The Reality: To get that, you need to buy about 1 pound of raw brisket per person.
The Great Shrinkage: Expect your brisket to lose 40-60% of its weight during trimming and cooking. It’s just part of the deal.
Consider the Event: If brisket is the main event, you need more. If there are lots of sides, you can get by with a little less.
Leftovers Are a Goal: Don’t be afraid to buy a bigger brisket than you think you need. Leftover brisket is amazing and makes you look like a hero.
When in Doubt, Round Up: No one has ever been mad about having too much delicious, smoky brisket. It’s better to be safe than sorry.
